Forecasting household waste generation

Abstract

Developing countries do not have comprehensive systems for urban solid waste management (USWM). Only big cities maintain some kind of treatment, meanwhile, in other towns and small cities waste management consists solely of its recollection and final disposal. The data for USWM planning is poor. Much of the data used for planning purposes are from other countries. The use of theoretical models is common. Important data related to waste generation is difficult to obtain in Mexico. Municipal authorities are responsible for providing free public services (e.g., street cleaning, waste collection, etc.), however, systems to obtain data on waste generation do not exist and they are not perceived as necessary neither for economic goals nor for planning. Scientific or technological objectives have minimum resources. This paper describes the methodology for forecasting the amounts of household waste (HW) generated in Mexico. The database consists of 39 studies on HW generation and composition undertaken across the country from 2003 to 2008. This study was based on Mexican standards NMX‐AA‐61‐1985 and NMX‐AA‐22‐1985. For the extrapolation we used linear regression in the municipalities, which according to the number of inhabitants were classified into 6 types. The limits were 10000, 25000, 75000, 200000 and 750000 habitants per municipality. The amount of waste and its separate fractions generated per person per day are estimated for households in each municipality class